Gold Price
At a time when markets are already expecting gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce, Bank of America (BoA) has raised its short-term gold price target to $6,000 per ounce.
In a note to clients, Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, wrote:
“History is not a guide to the future. However, in the last four bull markets, gold prices rose by an average of nearly 300% over 43 months. This points to gold reaching $6,000 per ounce by spring 2026.”
Hartnett forecasts that gold could touch $6,000 per ounce by spring 2026, which would be around 20% higher than the current all-time high.
Earlier, on January 5, Michael Widmer, Bank of America’s Head of Metals Research, stated that gold would continue to play a key role in investor portfolios this year.
“Gold continues to stand out as both a defensive asset and a source of additional returns,” Widmer wrote.
According to Bank of America, tight market conditions and strong earnings sensitivity will position gold as a critical hedge and a potential return driver in 2026.
Supply Constraints and Rising Costs
BofA’s 2026 outlook is based on expectations of declining supply and rising costs in the gold mining sector. Widmer estimates that 13 major North American gold mining companies will produce approximately 19.2 million ounces of gold in 2026, representing a 2% decline compared to 2025. He also noted that most market forecasts for production remain overly optimistic.
Average production costs are expected to rise by 3%, reaching around $1,600 per ounce, slightly higher than current market consensus.
Strong Profit Growth Expected
Widmer also expects a significant increase in profitability for gold producers. Total EBITDA across the sector is projected to rise by 41% in 2026, reaching approximately $65 billion.
About The Author
